Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.0 +1.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +3.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.62%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -8.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(138 of 500 reporting) +4.8% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.43 -.23:  Growth Rate +13.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -6.4% -85.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.27 +.49: Growth Rate +31.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -28.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -20.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 55.6%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +200 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -3.1% 2) Airlines -2.7% 3) Homebuilding -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FRO, SAIA, BA, EVR, RCI, XPO, GD, LAD, CNI, FTV, CSTM, BXMT, ENPH, CP, SPOT, DAWN, TDY, HELE, SLAB, MANH, ODFL and EDU
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ACAD 2) HCP 3) PCG 4) GEV 5) HBAN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EDU 2) TDY 3) AVXL 4) PLUG 5) LAD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) VGT 3) XOP 4) XLE 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.0% 2) I-Banking +.8% 3) Networking +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RILY, CGEM, TSLA, HAS, BILI, WAB, MNDR, VRT, LRN, SAGE, HCP, CSGP, DJT, WSO, GL, BSX, TCMD, VIRT, TXN, TRMK, ON, STM, STOK, EVER, EQT, KMPR, POWL, VERX, TRML, HLT, ITGR, CRTO, SA, TTD, SYF, AMBA, NXPI, WFRD, ZTO, BIIB, RIOT, ADI, MAT, RRC, PEP, EQR, KLG and LKQ
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HCP 2) NSC 3) PCG 4) TXN 5) TAN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WAB 2) VRT 3) BSX 4) HLT 5) SYF
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XHB 3) XRT 4) SOXX 5) XLC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MO)/1.15
• (AAL)/-.27
• (AZN)/.96
• (BMY)/-4.43
• (CARR)/.50
• (CAT)/5.14
• (CMCSA)/.99
• (DOW)/.45
• (FCN)/1.87
• (HOG)/1.51
• (HTZ)/-.45
• (HES)/1.71
• (HON)/2.17
• (IP)/.22
• (KDP)/.35
• (LH)/3.48
• (MRK)/1.90
• (MBLY)/-.06
• (NEM)/.36
• (NOC)/5.78
• (OSK)/2.25
• (RCL)/1.33
• (LUV)/-.34
• (STRA)/.58
• (TSCO)/1.72
• (TPH)/.76
• (UNP)/2.51
• (VLO)/3.22
• (XEL)/.77
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/.60
• (AB)/.71
• (GOOG)/1.51
• (APPF)/.88
• (AVB)/2.65
• (SAM)/-.03
• (BYD)/1.58
• (COF)/3.25
• (DXCM)/.27
• (GILD)/-1.51
• (INTC)/.14
• (JNPR)/.41
• (KLAC)/4.97
• (LHX)/2.91
• (MSFT)/2.82
• (MHK)/1.68
• (RHI)/.61
• (SKYW)/1.17
• (SNAP)/-.26
• (TEX)/1.37
• (WDC)/.22
• (WY)/.15
• (FCFS)/1.52
• (SRCL)/.56
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +3.4% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +3.3% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +3.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 4Q.
• Advance Good Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$91.0B versus -$90.3B in Feb.
• Retail Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 212K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1814K versus 1812K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.6% gain in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to -5 versus -7 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly Balance sheet report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (NRG) annual meeting, (PFE) annual meeting, (TXN) annual meeting, (JNJ) annual meeting, (AES) annual meeting, (DPZ) annual meeting, (ISRG) annual meeting, (HCA) annual meeting, (JBHT) annual meeting, (FAST) annual meeting, (SAIA) annual meeting and the (ODP) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.5 +.1
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 70.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .91 -29.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$236.1M
  
• 42 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 56.6% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.1 +2.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.7 +.07%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,755.3 +.51%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (Fear) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.6 unch.
  
• Vix 16.1 +2.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -7.8%