Monday, March 10, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk   
  • @nicksortor
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @goddeketal
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @KatKanada_TM
  • @WarClandestine
  • @catturd2
  • @MilaLovesJoe
  • BOMBSHELL ALERT: Maryland Grandma Exposes ActBlue's DIRTY LITTLE SECRET! Cindy Nowe, a sweet senior from Annapolis, MD, supposedly donated OVER 1,000 TIMES to ActBlue in 2022—$18,849.77 total! That’s 3 donations A DAY, EVERY DAY, all year long. But when OMG asked her about it, Cindy dropped a TRUTH BOMB: "No, I don’t think so." @OkeefeMedia went undercover, knocking on doors of elderly donors listed in FEC records—some tied to $200K+ in contributions! (video)
  • @NationFirstAust
  • @jimmy_dore
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • Meet Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney—pictured here alongside notorious child s*x trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell. This wasn’t just any gathering; it took place at Carney’s sister-in-law’s estate, Cornbury Park—a known hotspot for globalist elites. Is Mark Carney a client of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell? (pic)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +4.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.5 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.9 -.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.2 +1.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.56%
  • S&P 500 futures -.65%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by tech and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Tariff Uncertainties, Technical Selling, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.9 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.9 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.06 +.30:  Growth Rate +12.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.21 +1.27: Growth Rate +18.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 28.1 -.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -27.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.4% -1.1 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 48.9% (+12.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 49.8%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -760 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -62 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -4.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -6.8% 2) I-Banks -5.9% 3) Gambling -5.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AAL, AMRC, SNOW, FTI, DXCM, ROOT, LQDA, NWG, UBS, TRU, DFS, WBS, LPLA, KKR, WBS, DCTH, DFS, BFH, ISRG, SE, TSEM, MS, ZYME, NCLH, CRWD, NOW, SHOP, TECK, SKX, GMAB, UAL, DAL, SNEX, RL, CLPT, SPOT, STRK, TLN, ARES, S, FLGT, MRVL, FL, VIST, EVR, XPOF, LAZ, CWH, DUOL, HUBS, EOLS, TEAM, DSP, BBAR, CVNA, ALKT, FRPT, HROW, GKOS, VSCO, ALK, RGEN, PONY, BEAM, APP, IBKR, ALGT, RH, TSLA, MRX, MEOH, RDDT, RKT, HOOD and VICR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BIIB 2) IAG 3) INFY 4) HPE 5) ASAN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) COIN 2) CDLX 3) HOOD 4) XYZ 5) APP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLP 4) ARKK 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +1.2% 2) Foods +.9% 3) Energy +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MLYS, PTGX, ELF, KLG, STAA, MWA, BECN, KTOS, EMBC, ODP, CRI, AES, ENPH, TTC, CBRL, AAP, NSP, SCI, REGN, HCA, LNTH, NEE, EQNR, ADM, AWK, RMD, BIIB, ICFI, ASO, GIS, CAG, ETSY, COCO, NOC, ZBH, OTTR, BF/B, MO, AEP, KMB, PEP and WES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VOD 2) VSCO 3) FIVE 4) LFMD 5) GTES
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TRVI 2) RDFN 3) PTGX 4) BALY 5) CBRL
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) VGT 3) XLV 4) XLU 5) XOP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CIEN)/.41
  • (DKS)/3.52
  • (KSS)/.73
  • (FKY)/1.13
  • (UNFI)/.18 
  • (VIK)/.36
After the Close: 
  • (CASY)/1.95
  • (SFIX)/-.11
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 101.0 versus 102.8 in Jan.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to rise to 7630K versus 7600K in Dec.
  • JOLTS Quits Level for Jan. is estimated to fall to 3177K versus 3197K in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA Short-Term Energy Outook, WASDE Report, weekly API crude oil stock report, (ETN) investor day, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference, Cantor Tech Conference, UBS Tech/Media/Internet Conference, Citi TMT Conference, Leerink Healthcare Conference, BNP Paribas Chemicals Conference, JPMorgan Industrials Conference and the Barclays Healthcare Confernce, (TOL) annual meeting, BofA Consumer/Retail Confernce, Wolfe Research FinTech Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +47.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 -1.8
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 31.0% of Issues Advancing, 67.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .94 +34.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$365.1M
  • 35 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
  • 38.8% (-7.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 37.2 -4.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.0 -4.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 229.3 -2.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,382.2 -3.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 15.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 25.7 +4.1%
  • Vix 26.7 +14.2%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -6.7%